Pusaka’s Policy Brief on Climate Change Adaptation 2018 – 2030

I. Background

As a country with the longest coastline, close to 99.093 kilometers long, Indonesia is a home to various coastal diversity, which is quite rich. Such a fact is supported by the abundance of productivity in the area of agriculture, plantation, forestry, as well as fishery. Nevertheless, like or dislike, those affluent resources are now at stake due to the rise of ocean sea level, and varius other natural hazard risks, such as flood, drought, landslides, cyclons, as well as the massive conversion of coastal zones to palm oil planting, mangrove forest devastation, and last but not least, due to various impacts of global climate change.

A widening scope of the global climate change certainly and profoundly contributes much worse impacts for all residents living along the coastal areas who specifically and fully depending their lives on agricultural and fishery sectors. By present estimates, about 65%  of the residents presently living along coastal areas are absolutely facing extreme impacts; they are the most subsistent farmers and fishermen with relatively meager income gains, and they are practically depending on the available coastal resources, such as agriculture, forestry and fisheries to sustain their lives.

Despite the seemingly and hardly calculated facts, the impact of climate change in Indonesia is just both so imminently burgeoning as well as alarming. The loss calculation of Indonesian economy due to direct or indirect impacts of climate change will seem to be so much significant in number. In the year 2100 alone, the loss of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is predicted at the number of 2.5%, nearly four times bigger than the average loss of global GDPs as a result of climate change. Should the chance of disaster events is included, then such a loss may be soaring to 7% of the GDP. This is definitely a huge cost for a country like Indonesia  that has just escaped from monetary crisis back in the end of 1990. Therefore, it is very imperative for Indonesia to start streamlining and partly including various adaptive options  to respond to climate change impacts and all of them should be implemented accordingly, as this may also save  the future high cost economy for Indonesia’s development as a whole, that which can actually be used to provide protection to the poorest section of the people.

II. Pusaka Indonesia’s Commitment Towards 2018 – 2030

Yayasan Pusaka Indonesia – YPI, as an element of civil society organizations,  feel the importance to provide significant contribution that the various stated calculations may not take place as they are predicted by many experts. In principle, YPI is encouraging Indonesian government to take necessary steps in spearheading great efforts by soon taking options of adaptation at least within the following 5 (five) main sectors along with its related matters, such as:

1. Water Resource Base;
2. Agriculture;
3. Forestry;
4. Coastal Diversity, and;
5. Public Health

Furthermore, the government has to soon integrate the chosen options into the Implementation Plan of Development. It is really of a great challenge the government must do along with possible support from all related stakeholders, private sectors, CSOs, and various other community and mass-based organizations.

III. Indonesia in a Global Context of Climate Change

As an archipelagic Country, Indonesia is quite prone to the complexity of various disaster threats due to climate change. Despite the uncertainty of disaster impact that which cannot be comprehended yet, however, some of the following phenomena will have to show some tangible evidedence, such as:

1. The High Temperature. Indonesian average temperature has risen to 0.3^oC (a monitoring since 1990). The year of 1998 was the hottest year as found in formal record, with an increase about 1^oC (above average during 1961 – 1990)
2. The High Rainfall. It is well predicted that due to climate change, Indonesia will experience the increase of rainfall by 2 – 3% per year, which may lead to the frequency of flood happenings in significant ways in terms of the number of devastation and destruction they may take. It will also exacerbate the balancing of water source base in the neighborhood, and of course will contribute worse influences of water-generated electricity and the supply chanins of drinking water.
3. The Rise of Sea Level. Various densely populated areas will have to be heavily influenced by the rise of sea water level in many ways. By estimate, there are 40 million of Indonesia people living within the range of 10 kilometers from the average sea water level, that which is very vulnerable and prone to the change of sea water level.
4. The Food Security. Climate change will alter rainfall, evaporations, ground water runoff; which is eventually impacting agricultural productivity. The soil fertility will decline to about 2 – 8% in the long run, and that will drive down yearly product of paddy as much as 4%, soybean 10%, and maize 50%. In addition, the rise of sea level will inundate fishpond along the coastal zones, and in turn it may severely disturb the production of fish and shrimps across the country.
5. The Threats to Coastal Diversity. With a changing climate at hand, the sea water temperature in Indonesia will come to be about 0.2 – 2.5^oC. This will contribute more threats on the 50.000 kilometers of coral reef realms, which aready is at stake at present. The destruction of coral reef is predicted to be in sharp rise on a constant basis at the increasingly warming water temperature, as it is true as monitored in the case of Al Nino.
6. The Outbreak of Water-born Disease and Unknown Vectors. Despite disagreement among researchers as to the relation of the climate change and health situations, there is an imminently burgeoning potential of water-born disease outbreak and other unknown vectors. Some speculations show there is a significant increase of  Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever, most especially during rainy season in Indonesia. And, many of it may be caused by the increasingy hotter temperature.

IV. Main Options for Climate Change Adaptations

Adaptation to climate change is likely involving a wide combination of intervention in both reactive and proactive measures across various sectors; The Government of Indonesia (GOS) seems to have included some options of adaptation within its National Action Plan of Mitigation and Adaptation in Response to Climate Change in Indonesia. There are many more available options that can actually be considered and developed further.

The entailing cost used to implement adaptation will approximately be very high. By estimate, Indonesian adaptation cost and the three other southwast Asian countries, in agricultural sector and coastal zones would come averagingly be around US5 billions per year in the year 2020.

However, in the year 2050, the annual advantages from being  dodged of the devastation out of climate change would surpass the said annual adaptation cost. By estimates, in the year 2100, the benefits that can be obtained would be coming around 1.6% of the GDPs ( compared with the cost of 0.12% of the GDPs).

The widespread of climate change adaptation, as mentioned earlier, will of course not of easy thing things to handle and respond to, for sure. Consequently, a concrete action and option may need to be taken in the forms of various types of activities. It is therefore there is a pressing need to have a guideline in order to be able to put forward some priorities of adaptation, as aready depicted in the World Bank Report of 2010, within which 4 (four) steps are made priorities, namely:

1. Prioritizing investment options and policies that contribute to social and economic advantages along with climate change adaptations.
2. Promoting climate resilience by putting more aspects on “security margin” on any new investment.
3. Choosing any options that can be reversed; and..
4. Setting up activity planning on the basis of risk analysis; assessing and adjusting any scenario based on the newly found information.

V. Program Direction of Pusaka Indonesia, 2018 – 2030

The core essence of YPI programming during the next 2018 – 2030, in context of climate change issues, is to be a complementary partner to the Government of Indonesia and other private sectors in order to promote the acceleration of adaptation options to be integrated and well streamlined into any development program and activities.

This premise is based upon the spirit of building more sustainable Indonesia, in the future, which may likely be manifested,  by assuming that if:

1. The cost spent for environmental degradation and climate change adaptation could be brought down, then there is much lesser wealth that could be diverted out of the growth sector.
2. The environmental management could be better, then it would certainly contribute to poverty eradication, which eventually lead to reducing severe impacts in the part of the poorest people, by then the wellbeings and welfares could be well shared evenly.
3. The renewable resources could be used wittingly, while the unrenewable resources could be well developed sustainably, this would lead to contributing human investment and physical capitals.
4. All segment of citizens could promote public awareness and participation, either directly or indirectly, then it would lead to contributing to the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in the year 2030.

VI. Program Planning of YPI 2018 – 2030 on Climate Change Adaptation

A wide range of option that may be developed as work programs till 2030 are described as the following:

1. Water Resource Sector

a. Reactive – Responsive

1. Promoting the protection and conservation of soil water resource base.
2. Promoting an improved management and maintenance of the existing water supply system.
3. Promoting the protection and conservation of Water Catchment Areas.
4. Promoting an improved water supply chains for the poorest sections of the people.
5. Promoting the improvement of soil water base, rainwater collection, and  water desalination.

b. Proactive – Adaptive

1. Along with various stakeholders to promote the better use of recycled water.
2. Along with other stakeholders to promote water management system for the poorest section of the communities.
3. Together with various stakeholders to promote legal reforms on water supplies, water pricing and water supply for farming irrigation.
4. Along with other stakeholders to promote the development of flood control mechanism and drought season monitoring.

2. Agricultural Sector

a. Reactive – Responsive

1. Promoting food security control system.
2. Promoting the availability of water reservoir for faming irrigation.
3. Campaigning the save use and application of environmentally safe fertilizers.
4. Promoting the introduction of newly found plants and seeds.
5. Promoting efforts of maintaining soil fertility.
6. Encouraging efforts of adjusting planting session and harvest season.
7. Encouraging efforts of shifting to different types of plants.
8. Promoting educational program and information dissemination on various efforts of conservation, land use management and proper water usage.

b. Proactive – Adaptive

1. Together with various stakeholders to promote the development of new plants, which is tolerant/resistant against drought, salinity, and pest attack controlling.
2. Along with other stakeholders to urge more researches being conducted and the development of agricultural sectors.
3. Along with other stakeholders to promote an improved land cultivation and water supply chains.
4. Along with other stakeholders to promote diversification efforts and intensification of crop plants and food sustaining based plantations.
5. Along with various stakeholder to encourage proper implementation of  policies, rules and regulation for the emergence of  incentive and subsidies over farming products and the creation of market flexibility.
6. Toegther with other stakeholders to promote efforts of providing early warning system.

3. Forestry Sector

a. Reactive – Responsive

1. Promoting an improved management system of forestry management, and to fight against deforestation of whatsoever kinds and reasons, and to encourage efforts of reforestation as well as aforestation.
2. Promoting efforts of agroforestry in order to increase forest product and forest related services.
3. Promoting the development of forest product use and the improvement of handling forest fires.
4. Campaigning an improved forest carbon sink.

b. Proactive – Adaptive

1. Along with other stakeholders to promote green space creation / conservation forest, reserved forest, and the corridor of biodiversity.
2. Along with various stakeholders to encourage the identification and/or the development of resistant species against climate change.
3. Along with various stakeholders to promote efforts of better assessment over ecosystem vulnerability.
4. Along with other stakeholders to promote the monitoring over the endangered species.
5. Along with other stakeholders to encourage the development and maintenance of Seed Bank.
6. Along with other stakeholders to advocate the importance of early warning model of forest fires.

4. Coastal Zone Sector

a. Reactive – Responsive

1. Promoting the protection of economic infrastructure of the poorest people in farming and coastal areas.
2. Increasing efforts of public and community awareness in order to protect coastal zone ecosystem.
3. Bringing more dialogues on the possibility of seawall construction and coastal zone strengthening.
4. Promoting the protection and conservation of coral reefs, mangrove entities, seweeds, and various coastal zone vegetations.

b. Proactive – Adaptive

1. Along with various stakeholders to promote an improved/integrated  coastal zone management.
2. Along with other stakeholders to discuss an improved planning and development of coastal zones.
3. Along with various stakeholders to promote the emergence of rules and regulations for the protection of coastal zones.
4. Together with other stakeholders to promote more grounded research for the protection of coastal zone ecosystems.

5. Health Sector

a. Reactive – Responsive

1. Promoting reforms on public health management system.
2. Promoting an improved housing settlement to the extent that the poorest section of the community is up to having purchasing ability.
3. Encouraging an improved public health emergency response units.

b. Proactive – Adaptive

1. Along with various stakeholders to promote the development of early warming system in health sectors.
2. Along with other stakeholders to promote an improved monitoring of disease outbreak.
3. Along with other stakeholders to promote an improved environmental quality.
4. Together with various other stakeholders to encourage an improved design of urban development and decent community housing.

VII. Prioritized Program of YPI 2018 – 2030

Considering the present capacity of organization, the limit of resources, and the flexibility of the organizational human resource, YPI is to set up 10 (ten) program priorities for year of 2018 – 2030, with a vew of still expecting supports  and cooperation from and with national and international partners, as stipulated like the following:

1. Programs for the protection and conservation of water resourse base, with emphasis of an improved water supply management, mostly directed to the poorest sections of communities.
2. Programs for the conservation and maintenance of Water Catchment areas along the coastal zones.
3. Programs for the controlling of food security system and sustainable farming practices, with emphasis on the use of environmentally friendly fertilizers, including planting system management, and the promotion of the use of post harvest technology and the development of Seed Bank.
4. Programs for the development of information management system pertaining agriculture and food security.
5. Programs for Community Managed Disaster Risk Reduction (CMDRR), with emphasis on the creation of community preparedness in both individually and collectively, and to promote DRR community planning on the basis of prevention, mitigation, the creation of local contingency system, reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts based on local mechanism.
6. Programs for identification, monitoring, and mapping of disaster prone areas.
7. Programs for the development of livelihood of the poorest section of the community, with emphasis on the income diversification of farmers and fishermen that which is of disaster resilient.
8. Programs for the development and monitoring as well as the conservation of tropical rain forest, with emphasis on reforestation and rehabilitation of critical land space, aforestation, and of biodiversity conservation.
9. Program for the improvement and management of coastal zone ecosystem, through mangrove forest conservation, with emphasis on total participation of the fishing communities to restore and improve mangrove forest entity.
10. Programs for the development of economy of the fishing communities, through fish culture and fish breeding, with emphasis on the creation of coastal financing bodies.

VIII. Geographical Coverage of Project Location

All of the 10 (ten) program priorities, as elaborated above, are earmarked for its implementation within the Sumatera Island; namely from the most tip end of Aceh province to the most tip end of south Sumatra province.

IX. Beyond any Reasonable Assumptions

In spite of the importance of local capacity building of the impoverished groups of people, across the island of Sumatera, the more important thing is to improve qualified central and local coordination among various stakeholders, most especially in context of planning and adequate financing. Moreover, the whole members of community need to be made aware through proper education and information sharing in context of climate change adaptation, and various other issues related to the strengthening of the poor and vulnerable families. Last but not least, various kinds of research have to be conducted to promote understanding of the people pertaining  the global impacts of climate change.

Pusaka Indonesia is fully committed to joining hands with multi-stakeholders in order to bring about some significant changes through any possible cooperation with all concerned parties. This is all meant to creating an adaptive and reactive stance against the global impact of climate change, which is meaningful for Indonesia as to achieve the target of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2030.

Medan, October 2018

Drs. Prawoto (Prawoto)

Deputy Chairman to Executive Board of Yayasan Pusaka Indonesia